Curtailment / inspection delay on 20.5M bpd Hormuz daily throughput.
$97.00
Pre-disruption sea-borne global benchmark price ($/bbl).
$93.00
US domestic inland / export parity baseline ($/bbl).
450 nm
Extra nautical miles rerouting outside Gulf via UAE/Oman pipelines & Gulf of Oman.
15 bps
Standard London Joint War Committee cargo baseline premium.
Hormuz Chokepoint Status
21 miles width at narrowest corridor · Iran/Oman shipping lane
Elevated Inspection Tension
Persian Gulf Ports
Ras Tanura, Basra, Kuwait
75% Passage Flow+3.5 days detour
Gulf of Oman & Indian Ocean
Fujairah Offshore Bunker Hub
Price Spread & Disruption ProjectionBrent vs WTI Spread ($/bbl)
Market Mechanics: The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20.5 million bpd of petroleum liquids (approx. 20% of global consumption). When Iran tightens operational or bilateral shipping terms with Oman, seaborne crude (Brent) commands an immediate freight risk premium over landlocked US crude (WTI). Concurrently, extra maritime insurance and alternate pipeline bottlenecks around Fujairah exhaust global spare production capacity buffers.
Export Simulation Analysis
Structured model metrics for risk desks, energy traders, and supply analysts.