Strait of Hormuz Oil Transit & Chokepoint Risk Simulator

POSTURE: STEALTH AIS-DARK CONVOY

TSS Inbound/Outbound Corridor

Iranian Radar/Drone Envelope (115 NM)

Habshan-Fujairah Bypass (1.5 mbpd)

East-West Petroline to Yanbu (5.0 mbpd)

Active Tanker Convoy Route

Operational Scenarios Select Baseline

Tactical Transit Parameters STEALTH PROFILE

AIS & Electronic Mode

Escort & Protection

Transit Speed 16.5 kts

VLCC Convoy Group 3 VLCCs

UAE Habshan Bypass 1.5 mbpd

KSA Petroline Bypass 2.0 mbpd

Hydrodynamic & Risk Telemetry MODERATE RISK

Radar Exposure Window

6.8 hrs

Target Detect Prob: 34%

Total Crude Delivered

17.8 mbpd

Strait Flow: 14.3 mbpd

War-Risk Premium

$1.84 /bbl

$8.8M /day fleet surch.

Chokepoint Latency

+14.2 hrs

Bunker Burn: 92 MT/vessel

Supply Flow Share (Total 20.5 mbpd baseline demand) 87% Cleared

OPERATIONAL BRIEF: Stealth AIS-dark routing with electronic countermeasures decreases direct coastal radar acquisition probability to 34%. Overland bypass pipelines (Habshan + Petroline) are buffering 3.5 mbpd of Persian Gulf crude past the Hormuz chokepoint. War-risk premiums are stabilized under destroyer escort envelope.

[SYS] TELEMETRY ACTIVE • RECEPTOR ENGINE ONLINE • READY FOR DISPATCH