Macro Simulation

The Horse Equilibrium: AI Resource Bidding & Human Labor

Intersection Horizon Year 2035 9.2 years until human deficit
Power Bill Multiplier (10yr) 3.42× Driven by data center bidding
10-Yr Real Wage Net $2,210/mo Post-subsistence biological surplus
Physical Resource Strain 78.4% Grid capacity consumed by compute
Regime: Sub-Subsistence Equilibrium
By 2035, physical data centers bidding for electricity and land drive monthly living costs ($4,120) above the market wage rate ($3,890). Like draught horses in 1915, human upkeep exceeds market labor value.
Dynamic Phase-Space: Market Labor Revenue vs. Subsistence Cost Floor
Market Labor Revenue ($/mo)
Biological Subsistence Floor ($/mo)
Energy & Land Price Index

Factor Share & Resource Allocation (Year 10)

● Power & Land Resource Rents 45.2%
● Autonomous Compute Capital 34.8%
● Human Biological Labor Share 20.0%
Caloric + Shelter Overhead per Worker: $4,120 / mo

Macroeconomic Mechanism

"The horse was not replaced because it became lazy or stupid; it was replaced because the cost of oats and stable space rose while mechanical motors did the same work for pennies. When AI drives the marginal revenue product of biological labor below the physical cost of calories, electricity, and shelter, wages drop below subsistence."

Source: The Economist thesis on AI resource contention, utility inflation, and factor-market dynamics.

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