Economic Fundamentals
Top 10 Metros
Misalignment from Parity
+76.1%
Versus historical median income
3-Year Projected Correction
-18.4%
Downside fundamental glidepath
Affordability Index
44.2
100 = parity debt-to-income threshold
Downside Probability
88%
Stagnation or nominal decline
Valuation Divergence vs. Supply Scarcity
Position of analyzed market relative to historical equilibrium and peer metro clusters
Active Scenario
Peer Metro Markets
Fundamental Equilibrium
Valuation Risk Assessment
Severe Overvaluation
Current home price multiples exceed wage support by +76.1%. With mortgage rates at 6.8% and inventory constrained at 2.4 months, price levels rely heavily on external migration momentum (82/100).
Recommended Strategy
High caution; stress test for sustained rate plateau and supply recovery.
Buyers should model monthly debt burdens assuming flat appreciation over 5 years. Investors should evaluate cap rate compression under inventory normalization.
Export Market Scenario Report
Includes valuation metrics, stress coefficients, and full scenario parameters.
Market
National Benchmark Metros (Top 10)
Misalignment
76.1%
Correction
-18.4%
Affordability
44.2
Risk Status
Severe Overvaluation