Housing Market Overvaluation Risk Analyzer

Metro Market Presets

Macro Fundamentals

Price-to-Income Ratio 7.4x

Hist Mean Parity: 4.2xExtreme: >8.0x

Mortgage Rate (30Y Fixed) 6.8%

Historical Low: 3.0%High: 10.0%

Inventory Supply 2.4 mos

Severe Shortage: <3mBalanced: 5-6m

Remote Migration Shock Index 82 / 100

Baseline Inflow: 30Peak Pandemic: 90+

Annual Median Income Growth 3.1%

Stagnant: 1.0%Boom: 6.0%+

Valuation Misalignment +76.1% Above historical fundamental parity

Affordability Index 44.2 Base 100 = Balanced Affordability

Projected 3-Yr Price Drop Risk -18.4% Downside fundamental revert

Risk Category Severe Overvaluation National Benchmark Metros (Top 10)

Fundamental Price-to-Income vs Inventory Tightness

Bubble size indicates relative downside correction magnitude

Severe (>50%)

High (30-50%)

Mod (10-30%)

Parity (<10%)

RECOMMENDED STRATEGY High Caution: Reversion Risk

High caution; stress test for sustained rate plateau and supply recovery.