Hypothesis Pipeline Runner | Pre-MVP Validation Workbench

Active Test Archetype Heorhi Tratsiak Strategy

Hypothesis Objective One clear target problem

Tratsiak 3-Filter Validation Gate

✓

1. Technical Feasibility PASS

Can test demand without building multi-month custom infrastructure from scratch.

Tech Risk Level

Traditional MVP Burn ($)

✓

2. Positive Napkin P&L PASS

Revenue minus acquisition cost must show immediate positive contribution margin.

Traffic CPC ($)

Landing Page CVR

Intent/Waitlist CVR

Unit LTV ($)

Marginal Cost per Unit ($)

✓

3. Timeline to First Signal PASS

Signal arrives before resources or motivation run dry (hard limit ≤ 21 days).

Days to First Signal

Test Budget / Idea ($)

Estimated CAC

$100

CPC / (LP × Intent)

Napkin Profit / Cust

$120

LTV - CAC - COGS

Pipeline Spend

$4,800

12 Hypotheses @ $400

Capital Saved

$40,200

vs Single MVP Burn

Validation Directive

Run Step-Zero landing page traffic test before writing backend code; kill if intent conversion is below 10% on first $400 ad spend.

Comparative Capital Burn Velocity Runway Conservation

Traditional Single-Bet MVP (6-9 Mo Building Blind) $45,000

Batched Step-Zero Pipeline (12 Filtered Hypotheses) $4,800

Expected Signal Window: 14 Days Validated Hits Found: 1 Viable

Hyper-Casual Pipeline Simulation

Batch Size:

In hyper-casual gaming, studios release 30-second mechanics and kill 90% immediately. Only the rare hit justifies full development.

“Speed of hypothesis testing isn’t a startup’s advantage. It’s the only thing that actually separates a startup from a lottery ticket with a legal entity attached.”
— Heorhi Tratsiak, Former Financial Infrastructure Lead & Founder