Macro Stance & Cabinet Factors
Minister Ousted
Context (Reuters): Ousted Indonesia finance minister noted he was “upset” but half-expected removal. Coalition maneuvering increases fiscal deficit drift risk.
2.70%
Statutory cap at 3.00% under Law No. 17/2003.
39.2%
$145.0 bn
74 / 100
Cabinet Stress Matrix
| Risk Dimension | Status | Channel |
|---|---|---|
| 3% Deficit Cap Breach | Elevated | DPR Coalition bargaining |
| Bank Indonesia Independence | Monitoring | Burden-sharing pressure |
| Rupiah FX Volatility | Moderate | Offshore portfolio flows |
Market Reaction & Sovereign Stress
Policy Transition Watch
Market Confidence
62
Score out of 100 (Neutral-Cautious)
10Y Yield Spread Delta
48.5 bps
Over US Treasuries spread
Implied USD/IDR Pressure
+1.45%
Depreciation vulnerability
6-Month Yield Spread & Confidence Trajectory
Live Simulated Projection
Executive Policy Briefing Output
indonesia-fiscal-policy-briefing-66.json