Scenario Parameters
PA Lake Preset
Lake Thermal Stratification
D3 Depth vs Temperature
Population Decay Model
Thermal Shock Curve
Limnological Telemetry & Survival Status
Verified Physics Model
Zero Winter Overwintering Capability
Extirpated
Surface water temp drops to 3.5°C, well below critical thermal minimum (CT_min 10.0°C). Thermal refuge at 8m bed (3.9°C) fails to sustain species.
Species $CT_{\min}$ Threshold
10.0 °C
Max Bed Refuge Temp
3.9 °C
Days to 100% Mortality
4 Days
Summer Predation Window
92 Days
Ecosystem Impact Ratings
Warm Window Impact
Native Bluegill / Fry Predation
MODERATE (Summer)
Overwinter Population Establishment
NONE (0% Probability)
Zoonotic / Human Biter Risk
VERY LOW
Overall Ecological Risk Tier
TIER 1 - SEASONAL TRANSIENT
Limnological Analysis & Policy Findings
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