Model Parameters Dynamic
Conflict Duration Until Truce
3 months
Projected time until Gulf sea lanes normalize and sanctions shift.
Iran Supply Recovery Speed
500 kbpd/mo
Crude production re-entry rate into global maritime exports.
Baseline U.S. CPI Inflation
2.8%
Core non-energy consumer price index baseline annual drift.
Current WTI Spot Benchmark
$78.50/bbl
Current U.S. Regular Gasoline
$3.45/gal
Macro Elasticity Proof: Each sustained $10/bbl drop in WTI crude relieves ~25-30 bps from headline U.S. CPI and lowers retail regular gasoline by ~$0.33/gal within 6-8 weeks of refinery pass-through.
Projected Trajectories: 12-Month Horizon
WTI ($/bbl)
Retail Gas ($/gal)
Headline CPI (%)
Macroeconomic Readouts
Projected WTI Crude Bottom
$58.20
-$20.30 drop from war risk peak
Retail Gasoline at Pump
$2.78
-$0.67/gal household savings
CPI Inflation Reduction
65 bps
From 2.80% down to 2.15% headline
Full Normalization Horizon
6 months
3 mos conflict + 3 mos supply ramp