Iran Conflict Oil Shock & Recovery Simulator

Macro Scenario Presets TACTICAL

Conflict & Reserve Controls

Conflict Duration 4 Weeks

Active kinetic strikes and military engagement window

U.S. SPR Release 180M Barrels

Emergency drawdown from Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Strait of Hormuz Disruption

20.5M bpd chokepoint interdiction & tanker insurance freeze

Pre-Conflict Brent Crude $88.50 /bbl

Baseline world benchmark price prior to hostilities

Peace Collapse Velocity 3.2x Decay

Multiplier simulating rapid risk premium liquidation

Peak Brent Crude $112.40 WTI: $107.90 | +$23.90 Shock

Post-Conflict Trough $64.20 3 Wks After Peace (\"Like a Rock\")

Annual Household Savings $420 Across 562 Gal/Yr baseline driving

Consumer Gas Impact -$0.75 /gal Pump: $3.94 → $3.19/gal

Oil Price Shock & Rapid Descent Trajectory

Live D3 Engine

Brent Crude ($/bbl)

WTI Crude ($/bbl)

\"Rock Drop\" Zone

Timeline: Week 4 (Peak) | Brent: $112.40 | WTI: $107.90

Macroeconomic Impact Synthesis VALIDATED MODEL

Under a 4-week conflict with 180M barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and an active Strait of Hormuz disruption, Brent crude spikes to $112.40 during peak hostilities. Upon immediate resolution of fighting, the geopolitical risk premium evaporates abruptly, causing prices to drop like a rock to $64.20 within 3 weeks of peace, saving the average American household $420 annually on fuel.

Data Export & Artifact Handoff

Export the current modeled price curve points, peak inflation shocks, and household energy impact metrics.