Israel OECD PISA Educational Simulator & Demographics Sandbox

Investigate Dan Ben-David's thesis in The Economist: how educational gaps in core secular subjects (maths, science, reading) across ultra-Orthodox and Arab-Israeli school streams intersect with demographic trajectories to determine Israel's long-term OECD PISA standing and GDP productivity.

Policy Reform Scenarios

Micro-Policy Levers

Ultra-Orthodox Core Curriculum Reach 65%

Mandatory weekly hours of math, English, and scientific reasoning in Haredi yeshiva networks.

State Funding Conditionality 85%

State budget allocations tied strictly to national curriculum testing compliance.

Teacher Quality & STEM Retention Factor 1.20x

Incentives for high-aptitude educators in peripheral and non-secular school districts.

Haredi Demographic Growth Rate 3.8%

Projected annual cohort growth of the ultra-Orthodox student population.

Projected PISA Maths

472

+30 pts vs Status Quo

Projected PISA Reading

475

+23 pts vs Status Quo

Projected PISA Science

478

+33 pts vs Status Quo

OECD Rank Shift

+11 positions

From 33rd to 22nd in OECD

GDP Impact (2045)

+4.8%

Annual per-worker productivity

Fiscal Sustainability

Moderate Surplus

Net Tax/Transfer Equilibrium

PISA Trajectory vs. OECD Average (2025–2045) Real-time D3 Engine

Simulated Projected Composite

Secular State Stream

Arab-Israeli Stream

Ultra-Orthodox Stream

OECD Average (490)

Simulation Policy Brief & Contract Proof

Math Score

472

Reading Score

475

Science Score

478

OECD Rank Delta

+11 positions

GDP Impact

+4.8%

Fiscal Sustainability

Moderate Surplus

Economic & Academic Background: Based on the guest essay by Prof. Dan Ben-David (Shoresh Institution, Tel Aviv University) featured in The Economist. The model combines OECD PISA cohort microdata, Central Bureau of Statistics demographic projections (Central cohort fertility ~6.5 children per Haredi woman), and fiscal transfer multipliers to project systemic productivity vulnerabilities.