Istanbul Opposition Faction & Defection Dynamics Simulator

CHP Faction
New Party (Imamoglu)
Ruling Coalition
Uncommitted / Undecided

DRAG NODES TO RESTRUCTURE

System Parameters

Crackdown Intensity 75%

CHP Defection Propensity 42%

Ekrem Imamoglu Alignment

Electoral Threshold 7.0%

Coalition Telemetry

Stability Index

64.2

New Party Share

CHP Residual Share

Ruling Bloc Share

Projected Vote Share Stack BOTH CLEARED

Crisis Milestone Scrubber

STAGE 01

CHP Court Ruling

STAGE 02

Leadership Removal

STAGE 03

New Party Formation

STAGE 04

Mass Defections

Scenario Analysis

Under high legal pressure (75%), Imamoglu's alignment with the New Party pulls significant delegates from CHP ranks, splitting opposition votes while both clear the 7.0% electoral threshold.