Macro Risk Variables
1.45x
1.00x = normal balance. 1.45x = deep physical deficit & tight spare capacity.
6.2%
Monetary dilution and dollar purchasing power depreciation vs real assets.
28.0%
Margin premium between crude oil and wholesale refined gasoline.
Macro Forecast Presets
Commodities Core Insight: Commodities are spot assets, not anticipated assets. When inventories drain and the currency depreciates simultaneously, supply shortages translate immediately into exponential pump price escalation.
Midterm Trajectory vs $5.00/gal Threshold
BREACH PROJECTED
Causal Driver Attribution Table
| Component Source | Underlying Metric | Price Impact ($/gal) | Share of Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Retail Average | Historical Benchmark | $3.45 | — |
| Crude Oil Scarcity Effect | 1.45x Scarcity Index | +$0.81 | 46.7% |
| USD Currency Debasement | 6.2% Annualized Dilution | +$0.54 | 31.4% |
| Refining Crack Spread Margin | 28.0% Crack Margin | +$0.38 | 21.9% |
| Total Projected Pump Price | Exceeds $5 Threshold | $5.18 | 100.0% |