Payrolls Surprise
+75K
Surprise Pct
+50.0%
2Y Yield Shift
+9.4 bps
25bp Cut Odds
78.2%
50bp Cut Odds
8.5%
Hold / Pause Odds
13.3%
S&P 500 Dur. Sens.
-0.62%
Surprise Scrubber Parameters
225K
Consensus: 150K | Prior: 114K
4.1%
Sahm Rule Threshold: 4.3%
+0.35%
Annualized wage pressure indicator
-15K
Historical August negative revision bias
Street Scenario Presets
Transmission Model: Calibrated against historical empirical beta (2018–2024 Fed funds repricing per standard deviation NFP surprise).
FOMC Next Meeting Rate Odds Implied %
50 bps Cut: 8.5%
25 bps Cut: 78.2%
Hold (0 bps): 13.3%
Wall Street Desk Asset Shifts Modeled Beta
| Instrument | Desk Transm. | Shock Shift |
|---|---|---|
| UST 2-Year Yield | Policy Sensitivity | +9.4 bps |
| UST 10-Year Yield | Term Premium / Growth | +5.2 bps |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | Rate Differential | +0.48% |
| S&P 500 (Rate Sensitive) | Discount Factor Pressure | -0.62% |
| Cyclicals / Small Caps (R2K) | Growth Resilience Offsetting | +0.31% |
Front-end curves are bearing the brunt of the adjustment. Traders are aggressively taking the 50 bps opening salvo off the table, solidifying 25 bps as the path of least resistance.
Valuation compression in long-duration tech is partially countered by breadth improvement in financials and industrials as immediate recession fears recede.
Short-dollar carry unwind stalls. Yield advantage against EUR and JPY widening again as global central bank easing paths diverge.