Injury Severity Profile
Moderate
Level 2 (Moderate)
34%
80%
Game Environment Factors
Source Alignment: Grounded on Adam Schefter's ESPN report ("It's back tightness, and it's Joe Burrow") regarding Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans. Baseline derived from Burrow's healthy starter projections.
Projected Passing Yds
250.7
YDS
-24.8 yds vs baseline (275.5)
Projected Completion %
62.1
%
-6.1% vs baseline (68.2%)
Win Probability Delta
-6.4
%
Bengals win odds shift
Risk Category
Moderate
Historical impact: 0.91x
Historical NFL QB Back-Tightness Return Distributions
Comparing Joe Burrow's baseline vs. historical peers with back strain
Burrow Projected
League Avg w/ Back Issue
🐅
Cincinnati Bengals Offense
Starting QB
Joe Burrow (Questionable / Back)
Expected Time-to-Throw
2.38s (Quick game)
Passing EPA/Play Impact
-0.08 EPA
3rd Down Conversion %
39.4% (down from 44.1%)
🐂
Houston Texans Defense
Front 7 Edge Pressure Rate
34.0%
Blitz Frequency Tendency
28.5% (Zone Blitz mix)
Opponent Passer Rating Allowed
84.2
Sack Rate on Compromised QBs
+1.8% above league avg