FRONT-OFFICE LAB

Justin Herbert Franchise QB Conversation Analyzer

Sourced Quote / @NFLonCBS Captured Event Matchup: ARI vs LAC

"If Justin Herbert does not take the next step, we need to have the real conversation: Does [he] belong in this franchise quarterback conversation?"

— Ran Carthon after Justin Herbert's Subpar game against the Cardinals
Overall Franchise QB Rating
78.4 / 100
Evaluation Status
Meets Baseline Thresholds with Caveats
Herbert exceeds career EPA and success rate thresholds (+0.02 delta vs elite threshold), but Ran Carthon's qualification reflects postseason record and high-variance single games like the Cardinals matchup.
Adjust Franchise QB Benchmarks
Minimum EPA / Play Threshold: 0.12
Minimum Success Rate (%): 46.0%
Required 4th Quarter Comebacks: 10
Playoff Wins Required: 1
Career EPA/Play
0.14
+0.02 vs Baseline
Success Rate
47.1%
+1.1% vs Cutoff
Yards / Game
272.5
Top 5 in NFL History
TD : INT Ratio
114 : 42
2.71 Multiplier
Five-Dimensional Franchise QB Alignment Radar
■ Justin Herbert (Actual) ■ Dynamic Benchmark Floor
Arizona Cardinals Matchup Audit
Subpar (Per Source Post)

Drive-by-drive offensive efficiency logged during the cited Cardinals contest:

Quarter Drive Result Plays / Yds Drive EPA Outcome Note
Q1 11:24 Punt 3 plays, 4 yds -0.42 Pressure on 3rd down
Q2 04:12 Field Goal 11 plays, 61 yds +1.12 Red-zone stall at ARI 14
Q3 09:30 Turnover on Downs 5 plays, 18 yds -1.85 Incomplete 4th & 2
Q4 02:05 Field Goal 9 plays, 52 yds +0.65 Two-minute drill field goal
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