Case Study: $35M Loss

Investment Portfolio Concentration Risk Simulator

Asset Allocation & Stress Parameters $35,000,000 Base

Single High-Risk Bet 90% ($31.50M)
Diversified Broad Index 5% ($1.75M)
Cash / T-Bills (Safe Haven) 5% ($1.75M)
Single-Asset Volatility Shock 85% Drawdown
Time Horizon Horizon 5 Years
⚠️ Catastrophic Capital Destruction

90% single-stock exposure under an 85% idiosyncratic collapse wipes out principal with near statistical certainty.

Forensic Context: Siddharth Jawahar concentrated over $35M into a single volatile company. When the firm cratered, client equity vanished, resulting in an 11-year federal sentence.

Real-Time Monte Carlo Risk Engine 500 Iterations

Ruin Probability
94.2%
Portfolio 99% VaR
-92.5%
Est. Capital Recovery
24.5 Yrs
Terminal Median Value
$3.85M
Worst 5% (Collapse Zone)
Median Path (50th percentile)
Optimistic 95th Percentile
Simulated Paths
Metric Simulated Level Regulatory Threshold Safety Audit
Mathematical model evaluates geometric Brownian motion with idiosyncratic jump-diffusion shock. The case baseline matches the federal court indictment parameters ($35M principal, 90% concentration).
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