Feedstock & Pipeline Tariffs
100,000 BOPD
Design nameplate crude processing capacity per day.
25,000 BOPD
Trucked/heated pipeline crude from Turkana (Tullow/Total upstream baseline).
65,000 BOPD
Seaborne Gulf or West African crude shipped to port terminal.
$4.50 / bbl
Logistics hurdle: Lokichar-to-Coast insulated pipeline or freight transport cost.
$3.2 Billion
Turnkey refinery complex, upgrading hydrocracker & offsite infrastructure.
$70.00 / bbl
Global seaborne crude parity reference pricing.
Economic Feasibility & Supply Balance Model Date: Sept 2026
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Hurdle Verdict
Conditional Feasibility (High Supply Hurdle)
Total Throughput
90,000
BOPD crude processed
Utilization Rate
90.0%
Of nameplate capacity
Blended Feedstock Cost
$68.40
Per barrel delivered
Operating Margin
$14.60
Per barrel net of OPEX
Annual Net Margin
$479.0M
EBITDA before debt service
Crude Supply Hurdle Index
72 / 100
Supply stress & tariff friction
Feedstock Allocation & Deficit Monitor
Lokichar Domestic
Maritime Import
Idle Capacity Gap
Hurdle & Bottleneck Risk Matrix
Transport Hurdle
Elevated ($4.5/bbl)
Domestic Supply Share
Capital Payback
6.7 Years
Import Exposure
72.2% (FX Sensitivity)
Context & Sourced Reporting: Based on Reuters reporting regarding Aliko Dangote's interest in East African refining infrastructure, and the structural crude supply hurdles facing proposed Kenyan refinery ventures (including Lokichar basin upstream development, pipeline delays to the port of Lamu, and maritime crude economics).