Defensive Scheme:
Win Probability (WP)
49.4%
+36.2% on drive
Expected Points Added (EPA)
+2.74
Leverage Index: 4.82
Time to Throw / Pocket
2.41s
Blitz: 5-man rush
Clutch Success Rate
58.0%
CFB Red Zone Target Avg
Captured Source Telemetry vs Analytical Simulation Model
On September 7, 2026, ESPN published the viral game-alert stating: "KIENHOLZ DELIVERS WHEN IT MATTERS MOST 😱 GAME. TIED." This lab evaluates Lincoln Kienholz's high-leverage 4th-quarter decision tree in the final 34 seconds, comparing actual executed reads against counterfactual red-zone play calls.
| Snap | Situation | Play Call / Concept | Pass Depth | EPA | WP Before / After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snap 1 | 1:58 Q4 • 1st & 10 Own 25 | Boundary Out Route to WR1 | 14 yds | +0.82 | 13.2% → 18.5% |
| Snap 2 | 1:24 Q4 • 2nd & 3 Own 48 | RPO Quick Slant vs Off-Coverage | 9 yds | +0.64 | 18.5% → 24.1% |
| Snap 3 | 0:58 Q4 • 1st & 10 OPP 31 | Deep Over / Dig behind Linebackers | 19 yds | +1.45 | 24.1% → 33.8% |
| Snap 4 | 0:42 Q4 • 2nd & 4 OPP 18 | Rollout pass to TE in boundary | 6 yds | +0.55 | 33.8% → 37.0% |
| Snap 5 (ESPN Highlight) | 0:34 Q4 • 3rd & Goal OPP 8 | Game-Tying Touchdown Strike (Selected Below) | 8 yds (End Zone) | +2.74 | 37.0% → 49.4% (Tied) |