Labor Supply Shock & Macroeconomic Growth Workbench

Policy Shock Parameters

Enforcement Intensity (Deportation %): 50%

Domestic Replacement Incentive (% Wage Premium): 15%

Capital Readjustment Lag (Years): 3.5 yrs

Domestic Labor Supply Elasticity: 0.30

Cobb-Douglas Model Foundations:

Production $Y = A K^\alpha L^{1-\alpha}$. Sectoral output losses compound when low labor substitutability prevents domestic worker backfilling despite higher nominal wages.

Macroeconomic Trajectory & Sector Matrix

Workforce Contraction

-4.15M

-2.46% of Total US Labor Force

5-Yr Cumulative Real GDP Loss

-$1.42T

-1.28% from Baseline Path

Headline Wage-Push Inflation

+1.85%

Concentrated in Agri / Services

Net Fiscal Revenue Shift

-$84.2B/yr

Payroll, Income & Sales Receipts

5-Year Real GDP Path Projection ($ Trillion)

Sectoral Vulnerability Breakdown

Sector	Undoc. Share	Net Worker Gap	Real Wage Spike	Output Loss