Governance Lever Matrix
Select an archetype baseline or fine-tune multi-vector policy interventions.
Regional Archetype Presets
Structural Regional Baseline
Informal Labor Share: 51.2%
Initial Homicide Rate: 32.5 per 100k
Base FDI Net Inflow: 2.4% of GDP
Sovereign Spread: 410 bps
Homicide Projection
-22.4% (Short-term enforcement suppression)
Enforcement suppression vs. root organized crime networks.
FDI Confidence Index
48.2
Scale 0-100 (Capital hesitation due to institutional uncertainty).
Governance Durability
Elevated Institutional Friction
Judicial friction creates long-term constitutional vulnerability.
Structural Growth Delta
+0.3% short-term / -1.1% long-term investment drag
Short-run consumer bounce negated by high borrowing spreads.
Policy Trade-Off Radar
Assessing public approval, rule of law, fiscal space, and FDI pull.
5-Year Trajectory: Security vs. Investment Drag
Projected homicide rate index vs. sovereign borrowing risk spread (bps).
Structural Diagnostic: The Hardline Security Trap
While emergency militarized policing delivers immediate high-visibility security improvements and political consolidation, bypass of constitutional checks drives sovereign risk premiums to 490+ bps. Without structural reforms in the informal economy (51.2%), capital investment remains depressed.
Structured Policy Indicators Mirror
| Vector / Indicator | Current Setting | Projected 2-Year Impact | Structural Bottleneck Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Security & Violent Crime | 85 / 100 | -22.4% Short-term Homicides | High Immediate Suppression |
| Foreign Direct Investment & Spreads | Index: 48.2 | Sovereign Spread: +80 bps | Elevated Capital Caution |
| Institutional & Rule-of-Law Durability | Friction Score: 58 | Judicial Review Bypassed | High Long-Term Risk |
| Long-Term Structural GDP Growth | Net: -0.8% Net Long-Run | +0.3% Year 1 → -1.1% Year 5 | Severe Fiscal & Labor Drag |