Leadership Program Durability Tracker

David Ohnstad 3-Layer Measurement Model • Anti-Decay L&D Diagnostic
COHORT PRESETS:
Total Program Investment
$180,000
40 Product Managers ($4,500/head)
Layer 1: Vanity Sentiment
4.3 / 5.0
92% Workshop Attendance
Layer 2: Work Artifact Adoption
18.3%
Day 60 Reality: 81.7% Attrition
Q4 Budget Survival Probability
14%
Severe Decay • Cut Imminent
CRITICAL DECAY DETECTED: The "High NPS Ghost Program" Trap
Participants loved the sessions (4.3/5), but only 15% are citing frameworks in PRDs/decision docs at Month 4. Per Gartner benchmarks, 58% of uninstrumented skills fade before Day 90. Without concrete Layer 2 proof, Finance will terminate this $180,000 allocation in September.

Diagnostic Levers

Decay State
Program Baseline
Cohort Size (Participants) 40
Budget Allocated ($) $180,000
Layer 1: Participation & Sentiment (Vanity)
Workshop Attendance Rate 92%
Post-Session NPS / CSAT 4.3 / 5.0
Layer 2: Observable Behavioral Adoption (Leading)
Framework Citing in Decision Memos 15%
Unprompted 1:1 Coaching Cadence 22%
Manager-Observed Behavioral Shift 18%
Layer 3: Business Impact Linkage
12-Month Program Durability Trajectory (Launch to Q4 Budget Defense)
Layer 1 Attendance
Standard Unmonitored Decay
30-Day Instrumented Cohort
Month 1: Launch Workshop Month 3 (Day 90): Gartner Drop Cliff Month 8: Finance Budget Scrutiny Month 12: Renewal / Defund
Layer 1 Healthy Baseline
Participation & Sentiment
  • Attendance Rate 92%
  • Participant CSAT 4.3 / 5.0
  • Session Completion 95%
Shows attendees showed up and enjoyed the curriculum. Confirms basic buy-in but provides 0% predictive durability proof.
Layer 2 Critical Decay
Behavioral Adoption (Leading)
  • Memo Citations 15%
  • Unprompted 1:1s 22%
  • Manager Observed 18%
Severe decay in day-to-day work habits. Skills were not operationalized into decision artifacts within the critical 30–60 day window.
Layer 3 Uninstrumented
Business Impact (ROI)
  • Cycle Time Shift Unmeasured
  • Retention Delta 0.0%
  • Stakeholder Ratings No Baseline
Per DDI 2024, 63% of organizations fail to link coaching to business metrics. Budget line vulnerable to immediate cancellation.

Executive Q4 Budget Defense Architecture

How to shift from defending attendance theater to proving durable enterprise ROI before Finance reviews.

1. Work-Artifact Citations

Require PMs to cite Opportunity Solution Trees and trade-off rubrics in product specs. Audit 1 random PRD per PM every 30 days to measure genuine Layer 2 integration.

Target: >65% citation frequency by Day 60.

2. Self-Sustained 1:1 Cadence

Track calendar events to see if mentor/mentee pairs meet without L&D coordinators sending nudges. Pairs requiring calendar reminders signal immediate decay.

Target: >75% unprompted calendar maintenance.

3. Manager Co-Observation Audits

Equip engineering & design leads with a 3-question monthly pulse check on whether coached PMs are escalating risks sooner and resolving cross-functional bottlenecks faster.

Target: 2.3x retention multiplier (Korn Ferry benchmark).
Generated Finance Executive Memo Preview (Live Data): Ready for CFO Briefing
Generating executive summary...