Lean Beef Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) Impact Simulator

Policy & Market Levers

Scenario Presets

TRQ Volume Expansion (kMT) +100 kMT

World 90CL Lean Price ($/cwt) $285 /cwt

U.S. Domestic 50CL Fat ($/cwt) $115 /cwt

Non-FTA Export Volume (kMT) 340 kMT

Ocean Freight & Port CIQ ($/cwt) $12.0 /cwt

Trade Flow & Quota Step-Function Over-Quota Tariff: 26.4% | In-Quota: 4.4¢/kg ($2.0/cwt)

Import Volume Stratification vs Tariff Tiers

Country-Specific Allocation & Landed Costs

Origin / Agreement	Regime	Volume (kMT)	In-Quota	Over-Quota	Avg Landed ($/cwt)

Ground Beef Blending Model Pearson Square

Calculates wholesale cost of formulation mixing imported lean 90CL trimming with domestic 50CL fat trimming.

80/20 Ground Chuck / Hamburger $251.30/cwt

75.0% 90CL Lean 25.0% 50CL Fat

Formula: (0.75 × Landed) + (0.25 × $115) $2.51 / lb

85/15 Ground Round $263.18/cwt

87.5% 90CL Lean 12.5% 50CL Fat

Formula: (0.875 × Landed) + (0.125 × $115) $2.63 / lb

90/10 Ground Sirloin / Extra Lean $275.05/cwt

100.0% 90CL Lean 0.0% 50CL Fat

Formula: (1.00 × Landed) $2.75 / lb

Policy Economic Takeaway:

Expanding TRQ by +100 kMT saves meat processors an estimated $64.2M in avoided over-quota tariff penalties, reducing retail ground beef cost pressures by ~$0.08/lb.