Analytical Start/Sit Recommendation

START PUKA NACUA

Ceiling upside exceeds the 18% in-game exit risk in standard matchups.

62.4%
Matchup Win Equity

Your Fantasy Matchup Context

Are you chasing upside as a projected underdog, or protecting floor as a favorite?

Recommended Start

Puka Nacua (GTD)

10th % (Floor) 1.8
Median Pts 14.6
90th % (Ceiling) 25.3
Zero-Point Bust Risk: 37.5% 20+ Pt Boom Chance: 28.1%

Demarcus Robinson (Healthy)

10th % (Floor) 6.4
Median Pts 11.2
90th % (Ceiling) 17.8
Zero-Point Bust Risk: 4.2% 20+ Pt Boom Chance: 8.3%

Projected Fantasy Point Distribution (1,000 Iterations)

Puka Nacua
Demarcus Robinson

Target Vacuum & Contingency Ripple Effects

Projected shift if focal player is Inactive/Limited
Ready: 1,000 game paths evaluated across injury and snap-cap nodes.
Methodology: How the Injury Probability & Snap-Count Engine Works

1. 3-State Markov Tree

Every Monte Carlo iteration samples whether the player is: (a) Inactive/Out (0 pts), (b) Active but limited by snap-count/pitch count, or (c) Active and re-aggravates the injury mid-game (exit hazard curve based on quarter).

2. Target Share Vacuum

NFL passing volume is conserved. When high-volume target earners (like Nacua 28% target share or Nabers 32% share) miss snaps, high-value first-read routes spill over systematically to slot receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

3. Context-Aware Decision Logic

If you are favored by 15+ points, floor is supreme: avoid the 0-point donut. If you face a juggernaut and need a 90th-percentile ceiling explosion, the game-time decision player is often the statistically optimal play despite the tag.

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