Lone Run Duel: D-backs 1-0 Leverage & Game State Explorer

Game Status D-backs win 1-0 on McCann lone RBI Shutout victory preserved

Pre-Play Win Exp 52.4% Bottom 6th, 1 Out, R2

Post-Play Win Exp 78.9% Arizona takes 1-0 lead

WPA Delta +26.5% Decisive swing of duel

RE24 Run Delta +0.89 Leverage Index: 2.85 (High)

9-Inning Win Expectancy & Leverage Timeline

Inning: Bot 6th (McCann RBI)

Bot 6th — The Breakthrough: 0-0 tie. Runner on second with 1 out. James McCann works a 2-1 count and barrels a 102.4 MPH line drive into the right-center gap. The sole run of the game crosses home plate. Win probability surges +26.5% (from 52.4% to 78.9%).

Base-Out State	Base RE	Run Potential	Inning Leverage
B6: 0 Outs, Bases Empty	0.481	Average	1.12 (Med)
B6: 1 Out, Runner 2nd (McCann PA)	0.644	High (Lone Run Pivot)	2.85 (Extreme)
B6: Post-Hit, 1 Out, Lead 1-0	1.534	Breakthrough Achieved	1.45 (Relieved)
T9: 2 Outs, 1-0 D-backs Save	0.098	Final Stand	3.42 (High-Wire)

Chase Field Spray & Trajectory Canvas

Simulated Contact: 102.4 MPH

Exit Velocity: 102.4 MPH

Launch Angle: 18° (Line Drive)

Hit Location: Right-Center Gap

Play Result: RBI Double (1-0 Lead)

Exit Velocity (Scrub to test glove reach) 102.4 MPH

Launch Angle 18°

Count Sequence Leverage 2-1 Pitch Contact

Opponent Defensive Alignment Standard Depth

The High-Wire Anatomy of an MLB 1-0 Shutout

Historical Context

In Major League Baseball, only ~2.4% of modern games conclude with a 1-0 final score. When Arizona captured this victory behind James McCann's solitary RBI, every bullpen out carried an average Leverage Index (LI) above 2.10. A single misplaced fastball or defensive hesitation would have erased the lead.

WIN PROBABILITY ADDED

+26.5% Net Swing

Highest individual swing of any player in the game.

RUNNER ADVANCEMENT PROBABILITY

94.8% Score on 102+ MPH Gap

Runner easily scored from second with 2 outs avoided.

BULLPEN SHUTOUT RATE

3 Consecutive Scoreless Innings

Arizona's bullpen stranded 3 baserunners to secure the 1-0 result.