35-Year Cary Institute / PNAS Model: Acorn Masting, Rodent Surge & 2-Year Tick Lag
Year 0: Autumn
Acorn Masting
Caloric Surplus
→
Year 1: Summer
Mouse Population ↑
Larval Feeding & Infection
→
Year 2: Spring/Summer
Infected Nymphs ↑
Peak Human Lyme Risk
Multi-Track 35-Year Ecological Time SeriesClick Mast Buttons below to toggle acorn events
Acorn Index (Yr 0)
Mice / ha (Yr 1)
Deer / sq km
Infected Nymphs / 1000m² (Yr 2)
Toggle Acorn Mast Years (Years 1 to 35)
Empirical Finding (35-Year Field Dataset): Acorn mast events cause a dramatic mouse population spike in Year 1, driving a ~40% surge in Density of Infected Nymph (DIN) ticks in Year 2. Conversely, deer abundance variations exhibit no significant statistical cross-correlation with infected nymph density.
Statistical Telemetry & Lags
0.74
Mouse → Nymph Lag-1 (r)
+41.6%
Post-Mast Yr-2 DIN Surge
0.06
Deer → Nymph Corr (r)
34.2%
Nymph Infection Prev.
Avg Infected Nymph Density:18.4 / 1000m²
Total 35-Yr Mast Events:5
Lyme Risk Level:HIGH POST-MAST
Trophic & Landscape Knobs
Rodent Predator Density (Fox / Owl)1.0x (Standard)