Lyme Ecology Simulator PNAS 35-Yr Model

Ecological Drivers Year 1–35
Oak Mast Frequency Every 4 yrs
Deer Population Target 18 /km²
Predator Index (Fox/Raptor) 1.0x (Baseline)
Mouse Reservoir Competence 88% (Empirical)
Statistical Outcomes
Mouse(t-1) / Nymph(t) r
0.71
Deer(t) / Nymph(t) r
0.03
Mast Year Surge
+39.4%
Deer Cull Risk Cut
0.4%
Mean Nymph Borrelia Prevalence
31.8%
Core Ecological Law: Larval ticks feed in Year t primarily on white-footed mice. High rodent density generates an empirical ~40% surge in questing infected nymphs 1 year later. Deer abundance maintains adult ticks but shows no statistical correlation ($r \approx 0.03$) with questing nymph density.
35-Year Multi-Trophic Longitudinal Timeline
Acorn Mast
Mice / ha
Deer / km²
Infected Nymphs / 100m² (t+1)
1-Year Lagged Mouse vs Nymph Density r = 0.71 (p < 0.001)
Deer Abundance vs Nymph Density r = 0.03 (No Correlation)
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