Advance / Decline Ratio
0.68
Diverging 198 Adv / 302 Dec
Stocks > 50-Day MA
38.4%
Below Median Benchmark: 62%
Cap vs Equal-Weight Spread
-4.12%
Narrow Concentration RSP lagging SPY
Breadth Health Index
34 / 100
Vulnerable Rally Threshold: 55

Simulated Breadth Line vs S&P 500 Path

S&P 500 (Cap-Wtd)
Equal-Weight (RSP)
Cumulative A/D

Sector Factor Dispersion

Projected Return Impact

GICS Sector Sensitivity Breakdown

Yield Beta & Oil Elasticity Model
Sector Yield Beta (Δ 100bps) Oil Elasticity (Δ $10) Participation Score Projected Shock Return Broadening Status
Methodology & The Mechanics of "Broadening Rallies"

Why Yields & Oil Inhibit Rally Broadening

When equity bull markets initiate, leadership is typically concentrated in cash-rich mega-cap tech conglomerates with bulletproof balance sheets that act as synthetic bonds. A "broadening" refers to participation rotating outward into small-caps, industrials, financials, and consumer cyclicals.

Surging 10-year Treasury yields raise the hurdle rate (WACC) for debt-dependent mid/small companies, while elevated crude oil acts as an immediate tax on consumer discretionary spending and operating margins.

The Quantitative Model

The simulator evaluates cross-asset factor returns using empirical rolling betas: R_i = α + β_{yield} × ΔYield + β_{oil} × ΔCrude + γ_{fed} × Stance. Advance/Decline totals and % of members above moving averages are dynamically modeled through logistic dispersion curves derived from sector beta spreads.

Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) performance relative to market-cap (SPY) directly reflects whether the average stock is participating or whether the index is propped up by top-10 concentration.

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