US Expected Return (Ann.)
4.1%
S&P 500 10-Yr Projected CAGR
Ex-US Expected Return (Ann.)
7.9%
MSCI World ex-US (USD Terms)
10-Yr Wealth Ratio (Intl/US)
1.43x
Terminal wealth multiple vs 100% US
Optimal US Allocation
38.5%
Max Sharpe Asset Frontier Weight
Factor Decomposition: US vs Ex-US Alpha Drivers 10-Year Annualized Attribution (%)
Projected Wealth Trajectory ($10k)
Regime Synthesis & Insight
Under current valuation assumptions, the 18.4 point CAPE premium of the US market creates a -4.3% annual headwind. International equities benefit from attractive starting multiples (15.8x) and currency tailwinds.
Historical Precedent Overlay:
- 1982–1989: Japan & European expansion drove Ex-US +22.8% vs US +17.5%.
- 2002–2007: Dollar weakness + EM boom drove EAFE +14.2% vs S&P +6.8%.
- 2010–2024: Mega-cap tech + multiple expansion led US outperformance.