Index Fund vs. Speculative Loss Calculator

High-profile fraud cases, fake private placements, and speculative traps have cost athletes like Travis Kelce millions. Use this verified forensic model to measure exactly what capital lost to high-risk ventures would have generated had it sat untouched in a standard, broad-market index fund.

Index Portfolio (Total Value)

$12,388,253.94

Compound S&P 500 equivalent

Foregone Compound Gains

$7,388,253.94

Pure compounding missed

Opportunity Cost Ratio

2.48x

Multiplier on original capital lost

Parameters Real-Time

Scenarios & Case Studies

Principal Lost ($)

Time Horizon (Years)

Expected Return (% Ann.)

Historical S&P 500 average: ~9.5% - 10.2%

Inflation Rate (%)

Bankruptcy Recovery (%)

Clawbacks from receiverships typically return < 10%

Wealth Trajectory: Index Fund vs. Fraud Scenario Values in USD

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Year-by-Year Compounding Ledger

Real vs. Nominal Growth

Year	Nominal Index	Annual Gain	Real Value (Inflation-Adj)	Scheme Balance	Cumulative Foregone

Includes full schedule, inflation-adjusted balance, and scenario metadata.

Market Context: Inspired by reporting from @MarketWatch detailing multi-million dollar losses suffered by celebrities and athletes in fraudulent alternative investment schemes. S&P 500 compounding calculations use historical annualized compound growth rates with annual compounding frequency: V = P × (1 + r)^t.