Aftermath: Life-Changing Math Intuition Lab

Diagnostic Parameters Bayes' Law

Prevalence (Base Rate): 0.10%

1 in 1,000 people actually have the condition.

True Positive Rate (Sensitivity): 99.0%

False Positive Rate (1 - Specificity): 5.0%

Scenario Presets:

💡 Practical Rule of Thumb

Always ask for the base rate first. In rare conditions, a 99% accurate test yields mostly false positives.

10,000-Person Bayesian Grid