Policy & Rhetoric Levers
Calibrate CDU/CSU opposition and governance trajectoryStrategic Presets
65%
Industrial deregulation, corporate tax cuts & Mittelstand energy subsidies.
70%
Border pushbacks, asylum welfare caps & strict family reunification limits.
40%
Enforcement of Brandmauer cordon sanitaire in Bundestag and state Landtage.
80%
Confrontational rhetoric on social cohesion, culture and mainstream parties.
The "Halving" Benchmark: When Merz pledged to halve far-right support, AfD polled at ~22.0%. A successful cut requires reaching ≤ 11.0%. Trajectory curves evaluate voter reclamation vs radicalization dynamics.
Electoral Telemetry & Forecast
24-Month voter migration projection and stability metrics
Projected Far-Right Poll
14.5%
Baseline: 21.9% | Boast Goal: 11.0%
Boast Credibility Score
38.2
Penalty from boast gap & rhetoric
Coalition Risk Index
62.4
Friction with SPD / Greens
Primary Strategic Assessment
Moderate polling dip with heightened polarization
Aggressive rhetoric and migration shifts draw marginal protest voters but trigger copycat backlash, keeping the far-right well above the 11% halving target.
24-Month Far-Right Vote Share Trajectory (%)
Baseline (21.9%)
Target (11.0%)
Simulated
| Strategic Dimension | Operational Stance | Net Electoral Vector |
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