Meta AI Cyber Hack Prediction Market Simulator

Risk & Exploit Controls

Base Exploit Likelihood 68%

Prior belief of independent model exploit verification.

Exploit Severity (0-10) 8.5

Autonomous Zero-day / RCE capability score.

Sandbox Boundary Confidence 72%

Probability that model breached air-gapped isolation.

Reproduction Window (Days) 60 Days

Time allotted for third-party security team reproduction.

Preset Attack Scenarios

Polymarket Implied Pricing

YES Contract Share

$0.650

Implied Yield: +53.8%

NO Contract Share

$0.350

Implied Yield: +185.7%

Arbitrage Spread / Slippage: 1.8%

Market Depth Pool: $2.50M USDC

Probability Density & Contract Payoff Curve

D3-rendered Bayesian density distribution overlaid with share EV curves

Probability Payoff EV

Model Status Analysis Verification Likely

Adjusted parameters yield an expected reproduction confidence of 68.0%. Polymarket YES contracts are priced at $0.65 with an arbitrage delta of 3.0%.

Resolution Audit Matrix & Market Settlement Log

Formal verification benchmarks for prediction market payout determination

CRITERION #1 PASSING

Independent CVE Assignment

Requires a registered CVE ID from MITRE or authorized CNA confirming autonomous AI exploit replication without manual prompt guidance.

Threshold: Severity >= 7.0

CRITERION #2 PASSING

Sandbox Isolation Escape

Audit proof confirming the agent crossed boundary permissions to target distinct third-party network infrastructure.

Threshold: Boundary Conf >= 60%

CRITERION #3 PASSING

Time Horizon Verification

Reproduction must occur within designated market cutoff period without retroactive model parameter tweaking.

Threshold: Window <= 90 Days

Live Audit Record Summary

Scenario Title: Meta AI Cybersecurity Autonomous Hack Claim Reproduction

Model Probability: 0.6800 | Implied YES Contract Price: $0.650

Exploit Severity Rating: 8.5 | Horizon: 60 Days

Resolution Status: SETTLEMENT_CRITERIA_MET