Geopolitical Stress Vector
Strait of Hormuz Reduction
25%
0% Normal Flow
Max 21.0 M bpd
Saudi East-West Capacity Loss
30%
0% Red Sea Bypass
Max 5.0 M bpd
War & Marine Risk Premium
+$3.00/bbl
$0 Standard Insurance
+$25 Extreme Risk
Infrastructure Bottlenecks
Propagation Trajectory: Brent vs WTI Response
Brent
WTI
Brent Model: Physical exposure to Arabian Gulf exports & maritime insurance surge.
WTI Elasticity: Inland Cushing buffering with transatlantic export arbitrage drag.
Real-Time Risk Telemetry
SYNCED
Brent Crude
$108.23
▲ +3.5%
WTI Crude
$103.20
▲ +3.2%
Net Supply Deficit
5.25 Mbd
Global Daily Shortfall
Tanker Delay
6 days
Cape of Good Hope reroute
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
Strait of Hormuz transit at 75% capacity with Saudi Red Sea bypass partially curtailed. Brent prompt spread pricing immediate prompt physical tightness.
Key Benchmarks:
• Hormuz Maritime Flow: 21.0 M bpd
• Saudi East-West Line: 5.0 M bpd
• Strategic Petroleum Reserves cushion: ~180 days
• Hormuz Maritime Flow: 21.0 M bpd
• Saudi East-West Line: 5.0 M bpd
• Strategic Petroleum Reserves cushion: ~180 days