Global Oil Supply & Middle East Instability Shock Simulator

“Yemen is the latest domino to fall in the chain of instability set off by the U.S. war with Iran, a development that deepens the risk to global energy supplies and complicates efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict.” — The Wall Street Journal

Model the cascading transmission of regional conflict through vital maritime chokepoints. Directly alter conflict intensity, analyze physical vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, and evaluate strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) buffers alongside diplomatic off-ramp pathways.

Geopolitical Shock Drivers Step 1: Calibrate

Regional Conflict Vector

Disruption Severity High (68%)

Limited Tensions Severe Kinetic War

Market Price Elasticity Factor 4.2x

IEA / SPR Strategic Release (mb/d) 1.2 mb/d

Diplomatic Off-Ramp Active

Ceasefire talks & Oman backchannel mediation

Quick Presets

Maritime Chokepoint Transit Arteries Interactive Flow Dynamics

Intact Flow

Cape Diversion (+14 Days)

Chokepoint Interdiction

Supply Shock Telemetry Live Impact

Affected Maritime Flow

14.2 mb/d

Out of 21.5 mb/d baseline Middle East tanker transit

Daily Global Deficit

7.3 mb/d

Net shortfall after mitigation & rerouting

Projected Brent Crude

$118.5

Baseline: $78.00/bbl • Spike: +$40.50/bbl

Strategic Reserve Depletion

8.4 mos

Global IEA & U.S. commercial buffer runway

Diplomatic Off-Ramp Viability

Low (Diplomatic Off-Ramp Complicated)

Yemen strikes and Persian Gulf naval escalations severely complicate third-party de-escalation corridors.

Global Oil Supply & Middle East Instability Shock Simulator

Energy Security Intelligence Brief