Supreme Court Emergency Order Communications Act § 315(b) LUR Engine

Midterm TV Ad Rate Impact & Inventory Modeler

Analyze how the High Court ruling granting party campaign committees access to statutory Lowest Unit Rates (LUR/LUC) drastically lowers broadcast CPMs, multiplies commercial airtime yields, and saturates battleground television markets.

Ad Volume Multiplier
2.99x
+199% more commercial spots
Post-Ruling Spots Purchased
1024
Under discounted party committee LUR
Pre-Ruling Spots (Open PAC Rate)
342
Standard issue / independent rate card
Projected Market GRPs
1840
Gross Rating Points across window
Total Effective Savings
$332,600
Rate differential value captured
Comparative Buying Power & Airtime Yield Phoenix, AZ (DMA #11)
Post-Ruling Discounted Party LUR Yield 1,024 Spots
1024 Spots (LUR Tier)
Pre-Ruling Open Market / Super PAC Yield 342 Spots
342 Spots (Open Rate)
Daypart Rate Card & Station Delivery Matrix 30-Second Commercial Units
Daypart Program Budget Allocated Pre-Ruling Rate Post-Ruling LUR Spots Won (Pre vs Post) GRP Yield
Market Broadcast Inventory Clutter & Preemption Index 68% High Saturation
Low Political Load (0-30%) Balanced Station Inventory (31-60%) Severe Preemption Risk (61-100%)

At this spend level in Phoenix, political buys absorb 68% of available local affiliate commercial inventory across ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX, triggering preemption warnings for non-political advertisers.

Regulatory Framework: Supreme Court TV Ad Rate Ruling

Under Section 315(b) of the Communications Act, broadcast stations are legally obligated to charge certified candidate campaign committees the Lowest Unit Charge (LUC / LUR) during the 45-day primary and 60-day general election windows. Independent expenditure committees (Super PACs) and dark-money groups must pay the prevailing market rate, often 3x to 5x higher. The Supreme Court's emergency order extends discounted party-coordinated rate tiers to national party committees, creating massive structural airwave advantages.

1. Lowest Unit Rate (LUR) Eligibility

Station rate cards must provide national and congressional party committees the same volume discount given to high-volume commercial advertisers without requiring minimum volume commitments.

2. Non-Preemptible Airtime Rights

Discounted candidate and party committee spots receive statutory protection against station preemptions, bumping local commercial businesses and Super PACs from top evening news slots.

3. Battleground DMA Distortions

In high-density media markets (Phoenix, Atlanta, Philadelphia), party dollars purchase triple the ad frequency, driving total gross rating points (GRPs) past saturation thresholds weeks before voting.

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