Stabilization Trajectory
CPI Inflation (Ann. %)
FX Reserves ($B)
Primary Surplus (% GDP)
Country Spread (/10)
National Treasury Balance Surplus
Primary Balance:+2.5% GDP
Net Debt Service:-$1.4B/mo
BCRA Direct Transfers:$0 (BANNED)
Domestic Bond Rollover Rate:112% (Safe)
BCRA Balance Sheet (Quasi-Fiscal) Absorbing
Monetary Base (P0):14.8 T ARS
Quasi-Fiscal LeFi/Pases:Extinguished
Monthly FX Purchases:+$840M USD
Real Exchange Rate Gap:14.2% Overvalued
Commitment Mechanism Comparison Matrix
| Device | Credibility Mast | Exit Cost | Reserves Dependency | Banking Liquidity Buffer | Vulnerability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statutory Ban (Milei Rule) | High | Criminalization | Moderate ($25-40B) | Flexible | Fiscal fatigue / Legal repeal by Congress |
| Zero Base Growth | Moderate | Policy Switch | Low | Rigid (Spike in rates) | Severe liquidity squeeze on credit |
| Full Dollarization | Extreme (Iron) | Irreversible | Critically High ($50B+) | No Lender of Last Resort | Run on uninsured bank deposits |
| Currency Board (Convertibility) | Very High | Legislative Wall | High (1:1 backing) | Strict Limits | External terms-of-trade mismatch |