How the Model Works

This simulator models a battalion of 200 soldiers eligible for 2-year reenlistment. Each soldier has a baseline retention probability derived from Army Human Resources Command historical data (FY2020–FY2023), adjusted by MOS category, deployment history, and family status.

Incentive levers modify retention probability through empirically grounded elasticities:

• Bonus pay: ~0.8% retention increase per $10K (diminishing returns above $50K)
• Guaranteed leave: ~0.5% per 10 days, capped at 60 days/year
• Op tempo reduction: ~1.2% per 10% reduction, reflects dwell time improvement
• Skills investment: ~0.3% per $5K, stronger for technical MOS
• Assignment preference: Low +2%, Medium +5%, High +9%, Guaranteed +14%
• Family support: Standard +3%, Enhanced +7%, Comprehensive +12%

Readiness index combines personnel fill rate, training proficiency, and equipment readiness. Cost per retained soldier = total incentive outlay ÷ (baseline retained + incentive-induced retained). The GTA 6 preset models the reported TMZ claim: 30 days guaranteed leave framed as "time off for GTA 6 release" with standard other incentives.

Limitations: Model excludes second-order effects (peer influence, command climate), assumes linear elasticity within ranges, and uses cohort averages not individual predictions. Real retention decisions involve non-quantifiable factors.