Mining Merger Regulatory Clearance Matrix

Deal Architecture & Remedies

Transaction Name

Acquirer Origin

Target Origin

Market Share & Concentration: Copper 18.5% Market Share: Lithium Refining 24.0% Market Share: Nickel / Class 1 8.0%

Active Review Jurisdictions

Canada (ICA - Critical Minerals National Security) Australia (FIRB - Critical Asset Registry) China (SAMR - Supply Undertaking Review) United States (CFIUS / FTC Antitrust) European Union (DG-COMP Critical Raw Materials)

Negotiated Structural & Behavioral Remedies

Remedy A: Carve-out Canadian lithium refinery into standalone JV with local minority stake Remedy B: Long-term supply commitment to EU battery manufacturing consortia Remedy C: Voluntary divestiture of non-core African copper exploration concession Remedy D: US National Security Agreement + Independent Sovereign Board Seat

Overall Clearance Probability

78.4%

Highest Risk: Canada (ICA)

Est. Closing Timeline

14.2 mo

Statutory Phase II delay

Remedy Divestiture Haircut

$420M

Valuation impact

Antitrust HHI Delta

+340 pts

Moderate Concentration

Mining Merger Regulatory Clearance Matrix Critical Minerals M&A

Deal Architecture & Remedies

Critical Commodity Concentration & Remedy Radar Pre vs Post-Remedy Dominance

Jurisdiction Clearance Breakdown

Structured Clearance Memorandum Generated Regulatory Audit