2024 Postseason Path Map Click team to pick series winner

Wild Card (Best-of-3) • Division Series (Best-of-5) • LCS & World Series (Best-of-7)
Ready. 12 contenders locked into the bracket.
AL Wild Card
AL Division
ALCS
World Series
NLCS
NL Division
NL Wild Card
ALWC 1 Best of 3
3 HOU Astros
58%
6 DET Tigers
42%
ALWC 2 Best of 3
4 BAL Orioles
55%
5 KC Royals
45%
ALDS 1 Best of 5
1 NYY Yankees
62%
- TBD WC1 Winner
38%
ALDS 2 Best of 5
2 CLE Guardians
57%
- TBD WC2 Winner
43%
ALCS Best of 7
- TBD ALDS 1 Winner
50%
- TBD ALDS 2 Winner
50%
🏆
World Series Champion
Undecided
Pick or Simulate
Fall Classic (WS) Best of 7
AL AL AL Champion
50%
NL NL NL Champion
50%
NLCS Best of 7
- TBD NLDS 1 Winner
50%
- TBD NLDS 2 Winner
50%
NLDS 1 Best of 5
1 LAD Dodgers
64%
- TBD WC1 Winner
36%
NLDS 2 Best of 5
2 PHI Phillies
61%
- TBD WC2 Winner
39%
NLWC 1 Best of 3
4 SD Padres
54%
5 ATL Braves
46%
NLWC 2 Best of 3
3 MIL Brewers
53%
6 NYM Mets
47%

Monte Carlo Championship Probability Table (2,500 Full Bracket Trials)

Baseline Log5 Pythagorean Model
Team Seed League Reach LCS Win Pennant Win World Series

Postseason Best & Worst Stats Breakdown

As highlighted by The Athletic and The New York Times, October baseball hinges on extreme team traits. The Phillies lean on Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola's 3.64 starter ERA, but risk cold stretches from high chase rates. The Astros lead the AL in lowest whiff rate, but face bullpen question marks with starting attrition.

Log5 & Series Length Calculations

Single-game head-to-head win expectancies use the Bill James Log5 formula adjusted for ace rotation quality, bullpen high-leverage depth, and home field edge. Series probabilities are mapped via binomial probability combinations across Best-of-3, Best-of-5, and Best-of-7 series.

Monte Carlo Simulation Runs

Running 2,500 iterations simulates every possible branch of the bracket including chaotic Wild Card upsets, bye team rust vs. rest dynamics in the Division Series, and pennant matchups to give truthful World Series title probabilities.

Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super