AL Wild Card Series 1 • Best of 3

All 3 games hosted at higher seed ballpark across Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
Series Status: 0 - 0 (Tied)
Game 1 • Tuesday Pending
Visitor: G. Cole (3.12 ERA)
Host: T. Skubal (2.49 ERA)
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Ready for first pitch
Game 2 • Wednesday Pending
Visitor: C. Rodón (3.88 ERA)
Host: J. Flaherty (3.17 ERA)
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Awaiting Game 1 result
Game 3 • Thursday If Necessary
Visitor: All-Hands Bullpen
Host: K. Maeda / Bullpen
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Triggers only on 1-1 split

Series Win Probabilities 10,000 Iterations

Detroit Tigers (Host) 58.4%
New York Yankees 41.6%
Host Sweep in 2 Games (2-0) 33.2%
Visitor Sweep in 2 Games (0-2) 16.8%
Series Goes to Game 3 Decider 50.0%

Key Postseason Dynamics Factor Impact

Game 1 Winner Advance Rate 73.8% Historic
Bullpen Fatigue Carryover Normal (Day 1)
Ballpark Host Advantage +5.5% Edge
Current Simulation Outcome In Progress
Next Round Opponent Advances to ALDS
Live Inning Linescore: Game 1 Status: Final / 9 Innings
Team 12345 6789 RHE
Ready: Select a series or adjust pitching matchups and click Simulate.

The 3-Day Best-of-3 Meatgrinder

Unlike the LDS or LCS, MLB Wild Card rounds feature zero travel off-days. All three games are held at the higher seed's ballpark across Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. One bad inning from a Game 1 starter forces a team to drain their bullpen with zero rest days for Game 2 or 3.

Game 1 Leverage Factor

Historically in MLB Best-of-3 formats, the team that wins Game 1 goes on to advance in approximately 74% of series. Winning Game 1 allows a manager to manage Game 2 with high discretion, whereas losing Game 1 turns every middle relief inning into do-or-die leverage.

Pitching Rotation Economics

A team forced to pitch their Ace in regular season Game 162 enters the Wild Card at a massive statistical disadvantage. Use the rotation selector to test how facing an ace on short rest vs full rest swings the 3-day series outcome.

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