Governance Archetypes
Parameters
Treasury Influence
75%
T-Bill Issuance Share
68%
Fed Funds Target
4.25%
Fiscal Deficit (% GDP)
6.2%
Inflation Shock / Risk
+0.80%
Sovereign Yield Curve & Term Premium
Bessent Coordination
Active Regime Yields
Warsh Autonomous Counterfactual
Historical Baseline
Treasury bill-heavy issuance suppresses front-end liquidity strain while 10-year term premium compresses by 18 bps despite Fed reluctance.
Transmission Results
3M Short Rate
4.10%
-15 bps vs Fed Target
10Y Benchmark
4.42%
+32 bps 3M/10Y
Term Premium
Curve Shape
Mild Bull Steepener
Slope: +0.32%
Governance Friction
Institutional Coordination Friction
Moderate Fed Disagreement
Treasury shifting duration to T-bills undermines Fed QT signal.