Implied Approval Probability
84.2%
▲ +14.2% vs Phase 3
Expected Contract Payoff
$0.35
+56.5% Expected ROI
Effective Market Adoption
36.96%
Adjusted for Strain Match
Market Volatility (Vega)
0.182
Density Dispersion
Probability Density Function & Market Resolution Curve
mRNA Vaccine Distribution
Traditional Flu Vaccine Benchmark
Market Strike Resolution
Efficacy vs. Strain Coverage Payoff Matrix ($ ROI)
Sensitivity Grid across Clinical Outcomes
Resolution Mathematics & Implied Market Probability Model
The model computes the conditional market resolution probability $P(\text{Resolve YES})$ using a truncated Gaussian probability density function around expected effective clinical advantage $\mu_{eff} = E_{efficacy} \times S_{match}$.
P(Resolve) = ∫_{Strike}^1 \frac{1}{\sigma \sqrt{2\pi}} \exp\left(-\frac{(x - \mu_{eff})^2}{2\sigma^2}\right) dx \;\approx\; 0.842