MarketWatch Voter Debt Insight

National Debt Trajectory & Fiscal Policy Simulator

Midterm voters overwhelmingly cite the $36T+ national debt as a top priority, yet small piecemeal cuts fail to alter the compounding trajectory. Explore what real fiscal stabilization demands across defense, healthcare, Social Security, and taxes through 2035.

Policy Levers (2025–2035)

Mandatory Entitlements ~50% of Federal Budget

Social Security Reform Status Quo (0%)

Index full retirement age or adjust chained-CPI formula for top earners.

Medicare & Healthcare Reforms Status Quo (0%)

Expand drug price negotiations, adjust provider benchmarks, or increase high-income Part B premiums.

Discretionary Appropriations ~27% of Federal Budget

Defense Spending Trajectory Baseline (0%)

Pentagon procurement, troop compensation, and foreign military aid caps/increases.

Non-Defense Discretionary Baseline (0%)

Education, transportation, science research, EPA, justice, and foreign assistance.

Federal Revenue & Taxation ~17.5% Baseline GDP

Individual & Pass-Through Tax Current (0%)

Adjust top marginal brackets (37% vs 39.6%), TCJA expiration, or middle-class brackets.

Corporate Statutory Tax Rate 21% (Baseline)

Current statutory rate is 21%. Raise toward 28% or reduce toward 15%.

Payroll Tax Cap Reform Current Cap

Subject earnings above $400k (or eliminate wage ceiling entirely) to Social Security tax.

Carbon Fee / Broad Consumption $0 / ton

$25 to $60/metric ton carbon fee or broad energy consumption levy.

Economic Macro Assumptions Fed & Treasury

Avg 10-Yr Treasury Borrowing Cost 3.8%

Effective interest cost paid on total public debt as bonds roll over.

Debt-to-GDP in 2035

118.4%

Baseline: 118.4%

2035 Annual Deficit

$2.68T

7.1% of GDP

10-Year Net Savings

$0.0T

vs. Status Quo Baseline

2035 Net Interest Bill

$1.62T

Snowballing debt cost

10-Year Debt-to-GDP & Annual Deficit Projection

Baseline Debt %

Your Policy Package %

Annual Deficit ($T)

2035 Total Outlays$9.84T (25.9% GDP)

Social Security & Pensions$2.42T

Medicare & Health Programs$2.58T

Defense Discretionary$1.15T

Non-Defense Discretionary$1.12T

Net Interest Payments$1.62T

2035 Total Revenues$7.16T (18.8% GDP)

Individual & Pass-Through Income Tax$3.68T

Payroll Taxes (Social Insurance)$2.38T

Corporate Income Taxes$0.62T

Excise, Customs & Carbon Levies$0.48T

Adjust levers or select presets to view dynamic budget outcomes.

Why “Small Fixes” Fail Voters

Polling repeatedly shows voters favor cutting foreign aid or government waste to solve the debt. However, total foreign assistance accounts for less than 1% of federal spending. Without addressing the big three drivers—Medicare, Social Security, and tax revenues—the debt snowball continues unabated.

The Compounding Interest Snowball

As the debt expands past 100% of GDP, even small upticks in interest rates trigger severe budget crowd-out. By 2035, net interest payments alone are projected to surpass total defense spending and rival non-defense domestic spending combined.

The Debt-to-GDP Stabilization Test

Economists emphasize that the federal debt does not need to hit zero to be sustainable. Stabilization occurs when the primary deficit is small enough that the economic growth rate exceeds the growth of accumulated interest liabilities.