Debris & Search Parameters
Model v2.4
Load Case Presets
Day 10 Survival Odds
34.5%
Vital sign retention probability
Estimated Rescue Window
10.5 days
Viable extrication opportunity
Structural Cavity Status
Viable Air Pocket Maintained
Adequate oxygen exchange
Disaster Timeline Survival Probability Curve
Survival odds modeled daily up to 14 days post-collapse
Survival Curve
Day 10 Discovery Point
10-Day Milestone Tracker: Premature Mourning vs Discovery Reality
Comparative analysis between customary post-flood mourning protocols and Chandika Kumari Shrestha's actual survivability trajectory.
| Timeline | Cultural Ritual / Assumption | Physical Reality Inside Structure | Modeled Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | Believed Deceased | Initial masonry structural collapse; trapped inside localized ceiling cavity. | 91.8% |
| Day 3 | Search Abandoned | Heavy runoff bypasses chamber; air pocket retains safe O2/CO2 ratio. | 78.4% |
| Day 7 | Mourning Initiated | Severe dehydration & hypothermia onset; metabolic preservation kicks in. | 52.1% |
| Day 10 | Final Rites Planned | Rescued Alive Teams detect acoustic taps; extricated safely. | 34.5% |
| Day 11+ | Post-Mourning Period | Hospitalization, rehydration therapy, and hypothermia reversal. | 18.2% |