Dynamic Win Probability vs. Over Cover Curve
Team Win Prob (%)
Over 72.5 Cover Prob (%)
Current Clock (45s)
Game-Theory Coaching Decision Matrix
Calculated using victory formation safety bounds
Option A: Kneel Out Clock (Victory Formation)
Team Win Probability:
99.9%
Turnover / Fumble Risk:
< 0.05%
Final Projected Total:
72 pts
Over 72.5 Result:
Bettor Loss (Under)
Over Bettor EV:
-100.0%
Option B: Attempt FG / Push Drive
Team Win Probability:
96.8%
Turnover / Blocked Return Risk:
~ 2.8% - 3.5%
Final Projected Total:
75 pts (40-35)
Over 72.5 Result:
Bettor Win (Over)
Over Bettor EV:
+90.9%
The Math of the Bad Beat: With 45 seconds left and zero opponent timeouts,
kneeling guarantees a 100% clock kill without risk of a blocked kick, scoop-and-score, or unnecessary injuries.
While bettors holding Over 72.5 were left 0.5 points shy at 72 combined points, the coach’s objective function is purely P(Win), whereas bettor payout is tied to total points.