MIAMI DOLPHINS
Outgoing Asset
Quinn Ewers
QB • Age 22 • Texas Longhorns
Incoming Asset
2028 Day 3 Pick Upgrade
Conditional 5th/6th Swap Advantage
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Incoming Asset
Quinn Ewers (QB)
Developmental QB2 / Upside Insurance
Outgoing Asset
2028 Day 3 Pick Swap Concession
Surrendering draft pick positioning in 2028
Contract Status
3 Years Remaining
Cost-controlled Rookie Deal
2026-28 Total Cap
~$1.08M / yr avg
< 0.4% Team Cap
College Pedigree
Texas Longhorns
CFP Semi-Finalist QB
JAX QB Room Role
Primary Backup (QB2)
Behind Trevor Lawrence
Chart Model Engine
Jimmy Johnson vs. Rich Hill
2028 Day 3 Pick Swap & Surplus Valuation Engine
Draft Pick Parameters
Round 5, Pick #152
Rd 5 (#130)
Rd 6 (#175)
Rd 7 (#250)
Round 6, Pick #195
Rd 5 (#150)
Rd 6 (#200)
Rd 7 (#257)
15% / yr (2028 PV)
Front-office convention discounts picks by 1 round or ~15% per future draft year.
Standard Scenario Presets:
Miami Acquired Pick
31.4 pts
Present Value: 22.7 pts
Miami Sent Pick
13.8 pts
Present Value: 10.0 pts
Net Swap Capital
+17.6 pts
≈ Mid-6th Rd Pick Value
Relative Asset Trade-Off
Model: Jimmy Johnson Chart
Miami Net Pick Jump
+17.6 pts value
Jacksonville Ewers Valuation (3-yr Backup Utility + Upside)
Est. ~20.0 pts value
Day 3 Historical Hit Rate:
Round 5-7 draft picks have an average career roster retention rate of 28.4% past Year 2. Acquiring an already-scouted high-pedigree QB on a cheap rookie pact allows Jacksonville to bypass 2028 draft variance.
Roster Dynamics
Franchise QB Depth Charts & Cap Matrix
2026-2027 Cap Outlook
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Room
1
Trevor Lawrence
Franchise Cornerstone • Signed thru 2030
$37.5M
Cap Hit
New Acquisition
2
Quinn Ewers
Primary Developmental Backup • Thru 2028
$1.02M
Rookie Base
3
CJ Beathard / PS QB
Emergency / Practice Squad Veteran
$350K
Cap Allocated
JAX Strategic Impact: Gives head coach and offensive staff an arm with top-tier college pedigree to mold behind Lawrence at negligible cap commitments, solidifying QB2 without spending 2026/2027 picks.
Miami Dolphins QB Room
1
Tua Tagovailoa
Franchise Starter • Multi-Year Deal
$42.8M
Cap Hit
2
Skylar Thompson / Vet QB2
Scheme-Familiar Backup
$2.4M
Cap Hit
✓
53-Man Roster Spot Opened
Reallocated to defense / special teams
+$1.0M
Cap Savings
MIA Strategic Impact: Miami clears a tight quarterback room crunch, monetizes a surplus arm into future draft equity, and creates 2028 draft positioning flexibility for Chris Grier.
Playoff / Playing Time Triggers
Conditional Pick Escalator Simulator
Simulate how performance incentives alter the 2028 pick swap tiers.
Resulting 2028 Pick Tier
Base Condition (Round 6)
Standard backup participation. Miami gains top-of-6th position swap.
Calculated Net Value:
+14.2 pts
Jacksonville Risk Exposure
Minimal (< 2% Cap)
Zero guaranteed dead money beyond contract salary. Low downside contingency.
Protection Index:
High (9.4/10)
Instant Consensus Verdict