San Francisco 49ers
Defense (Made Stop)
17
Los Angeles Rams
Offense (Stopped on 4th)
7
Fourth-Down Leverage & Win Probability
Q3 · 12:00 Rem.
49ers Win Prob (Defense)
0.842
(84.2% Post-Stop)
Rams Win Prob (Offense)
0.158
(15.8% Baseline)
RAMS 0
20
40
50
40
20
GOAL
🏈 LA at SF 2 (4th & Goal)
Coach Decision Tree (Rams Offense Perspective)
Optimal Choice
Go For It (4th & Goal)
Exp. Points: 1.48
Conv. Rate: 48.5%
TD gives +4.1 pts delta; Fail pins Niners at their 2-yd line.
Alternative
Attempt Field Goal
Exp. Points: 2.71
FG Make Rate: 96.8%
Guaranteed 3 pts, but Rams stay down 17-10 without momentum.
Invalid
Punt Option
Exp. Points: -1.20
Position Penalty: Severe
Cannot punt from inside opponent 10-yard line.
Drive Win Probability Timeline (D3 Engine)
Model Consensus: Go For It
Drive Telemetry & Decision Breakdown
2026-09-11 02:51 UTC
| Metric Field | Simulated Value | Benchmark Baseline | Strategic Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Win Prob (Defense - SF) | 0.842 | 0.842 | +9.4% leverage shift following goal-line stop |
| Baseline Win Prob (Offense - LA) | 0.158 | 0.158 | Rams drop below 16% equity after failed 4th-down conversion |
| Expected Point Value (Go for it) | 1.48 | 1.48 | 48.5% * 7 pts (approx 3.4 pts if scored minus turnover field pos) |
| Expected Point Value (Field Goal) | 2.71 | 2.71 | 96.8% make prob yielding +2.71 expected net score |
| Optimal Strategic Decision | Go For It | Go For It | Maximizes championship leverage despite high variance |