In-Game Win Expectancy Trajectory (Statcast WPA Curve)
Historical Oct Playoff Base MatrixHow October Playoff Leverage & Clinch Probability Works
⚾ Championship Leverage Index (cLI)
Unlike regular season leverage (LI = 1.0 average), October games multiply in-game stakes by the series swing weight. An elimination game or clinching 9th inning can reach a cLI exceeding 5.0x, meaning every single pitch swings overall championship equity drastically.
📈 Markov Base-Out Run Expectancy
With 2 outs and bases empty, expected runs in the inning drop to 0.098. Adding a runner on 1st spikes expected runs to 0.224, and bases loaded jumps to 0.736. The model calculates the exact discrete binomial distribution of runs allowed given remaining outs and score differential.
🧊 Bullpen Rest & Penalty Decay
Consecutive postseason appearances without days off induce high-velocity fatigue, expanding opponent contact wOBA by up to 28 points. Our simulator applies dynamic whiff-rate decay and barrel vulnerability for consecutive October outings.