In-Game Win Expectancy Swing Chart (WPA)
Δ Last Play: +0.00%Series Outcome Tree & Clinch Paths (Remaining Scenarios)
2-1 Lead in Best of 5How Postseason Series Leverage & Clinch Probability Work
Championship Leverage Index (cLI)
Developed by Tom Tango and sabermetric researchers, cLI measures the importance of a specific game and in-game situation relative to winning the ultimate championship. While a normal regular-season pitch has a leverage index of 1.0, a 9th-inning pitch in a clinching playoff game regularly exceeds 4.5x to 8.0x leverage.
The Best-of-5 Short Series Asymmetry
In a Best-of-5 Division Series, taking a 2-1 series lead gives the leading club a historic ~72% to ~81% chance to advance. Losing Game 4 pushes the series to a sudden-death Game 5 where single-game variance jumps to 50/50, dramatically magnifying the value of clinching in Game 4.
Pitcher Rest Fatigue Discount
Relievers pitching on 0 days rest (back-to-back or three consecutive days) experience an average 1.2 mph velocity dip and an 18% reduction in whiff rate. When high-velocity closers are pushed in October, strikeout equity drops while home run probability increases.
Run Expectancy & Win Expectancy (RE24 / WE)
The engine calculates in-game win expectancy using MLB postseason run expectancy matrices across the 24 base-out states (0, 1, or 2 outs with 8 runner permutations), blended with inning remaining and score differential.